This research examined the effects of changes in functional status on
the risks for subsequent nursing home placement and death. Using data on
the 3,646 baseline self-respondents to the Longitudinal Study on Aging
who were successfully reinterviewed at the first follow-up (1986) and who
were not in a nursing home at that time, a two-stage analysis was conducted.
First, the risks for nursing home placement and death between the 1986
and 1988 follow-ups were modeled based on a static set of baseline (1984)
indicators. Measures of the change in functional health status between
baseline and first follow-up were then introduced to determine whether
such change had significant net effects and enhanced model fit. Substantial
improvement in model fit was obtained for both outcomes. The risk of nursing
home placement was associated with deterioration in advanced (i.e., cognitive)
ADLs and lower body function. Deterioration in basic ADLs and lower body
function was associated with the risk of dying.